• Vol. 36 No. 9, 770–773
  • 15 September 2007

Logistic Regression Analysis to Predict Medical Licensing Examination of Thailand (MLET) Step1 Success or Failure



Introduction: The aim of this paper was to assess factors that predict students’ performance in the Medical Licensing Examination of Thailand (MLET) Step1 examination. The hypothesis was that demographic factors and academic records would predict the students’ performance in the Step1 Licensing Examination. Materials and Methods: A logistic regression analysis of demographic factors (age, sex and residence) and academic records [high school grade point average (GPA), National University Entrance Examination Score and GPAs of the pre-clinical years] with the MLET Step1 outcome was accomplished using the data of 117 third-year Ramathibodi medical students. Results: Twenty-three (19.7%) students failed the MLET Step1 examination. Stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that the significant predictors of MLET Step1 success/failure were residence background and GPAs of the second and third preclinical years. For students whose sophomore and third-year GPAs increased by an average of 1 point, the odds of passing the MLET Step1 examination increased by a factor of 16.3 and 12.8 respectively. The minimum GPAs for students from urban and rural backgrounds to pass the examination were estimated from the equation (2.35 vs 2.65 from 4.00 scale). Conclusions: Students from rural backgrounds and/or low-grade point averages in their second and third pre-clinical years of medical school are at risk of failing the MLET Step1 examination. They should be given intensive tutorials during the second and third pre-clinical years.

According to the new regulations established in 2002, the Thai Medical Council now requires that all Thai medical students who matriculated as of 2003 pass the Medical Licensing Examination of the Thai Medical Council in order to be a licensed physician in Thailand. There are 3 steps to the examination. Step 1, called comprehensive basic medical science, centres on the subjects covered in the pre-clinical curriculum (anatomy, biochemistry, epidemiology, microbiology, pathology, pharmacology, and physiology). Thai medical students who matriculated in 2003 were the first batch to sit for the Step1 examination in their third academic year in 2006. The Step 2 examination tests the knowledge on clinical science. The Step 3 examination includes OSCE (objective structural clinical examination) and MEQ (modified essay questions). The Step 2 and Step 3 examinations will be held in 2007 and 2008 respectively.

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