Countries around the world are ramping up vaccination efforts with the hope of transitioning from a COVID-19 pandemic state to endemicity. A desired endemic state is characterised by a baseline prevalence of infections with a generally mild disease profile that can be sustainably managed by the healthcare system, together with the resumption of near normalcy in human activities.

A Singapore study examined evidence for a vaccine-driven COVID-19 exit strategy, and discussed how a transition can be made from a pandemic state to an endemic one. It weighed promising data around vaccine efficacy together with uncertainties posed by emergent variants that may evade vaccine immunity.

One suggested calibrated approach is the lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions in phases while ramping up vaccination coverage, with less restrictions imposed upon vaccinated individuals. This may help to avoid spikes in COVID-19 infection rates, deaths and strain in healthcare capacity, which can derail progress to endemicity.